Lobster
@BowTiedLobster — 374 tweets
Also from Mandelbrot. This has been the best meme for the past quarter and you can’t convince me otherwise.
That speech might be the moment that gets the people who price the market to accept this. Or not. It’s a phase transition/tipping point—they are inherently unpredictable. Lobster (@BowTiedLobster) The biggest misconception about this market is the assumption that there is a put in equities. There is no put in equities. Not from Powell. Not from Trump. Trump however realizes that when this becomes consensus the market slips on the ice. He’s doing his best to stop that. — https://nitter.net/BowTiedLobster/status/2026893661234139392#m
nitter.net/stevehou/status/203935… Steve Hou (@stevehou) “To confuse the enemy, the general must confuse himself first. To keep the opponent guessing, he keeps himself guessing what he will do the next day.” - Sun Tzu — https://nitter.net/stevehou/status/2039351512925634860#m
Markets are long-term fundamental short-term psychological (though I hate this framing because I think it’s exceptionally unlikely you generate durable alpha because you think you can predict the way other people are thinking, and I focus longer-term for this exact reason).
I actually think that fundamentally speaking boots on the ground should be a positive development for risk but the smart people who price the market have a fixed notion of “taco” that will get priced out and overwhelm the fundamentals. Liberation Day was the same.
Credit started creaking last few days as the TACO card in Trump's hand became the star of the show. The world is a stage play. Hide your kids, hide your wife
Remember all those crazy stories from Venezuela where they didn't know what hit them? U.S. military about to break that stuff out near the Straits of Hormuz?
Nice, Aahan, one of my favorites. Lobster (@BowTiedLobster) Cash is king everyone. It often takes some time, but I always get it right. I've learned to manage the risk of being early and turn it to my advantage. Cash is king still holds. — https://nitter.net/BowTiedLobster/status/2035063973733965917#m
I wanted to take a moment to express my appreciation to everyone who has taken a chance on an inexperienced and perhaps overly confident Lobster. My goal is to continue to do my best.
h/t @0xbigmikey Lobster (@BowTiedLobster) Market hours is when there's liquidity and the market actually prices things in. When they do Hawk stuff after hours they keep it away from the pricing mechanism. This is attempted vol suppression. It's like pressing down on a pot with heating water on it. If the water is a little bit hot but not that hot then pressing down can handle that level of expansion. To convert that back to market speak, in such a situation, even though there are some bearish fundamentals to cause corrections, if Trump and Bessent play a few tricks like this they can kick the correction down the road. If the pot gets too hot and you keep pressing down on the lid eventually it will explode. This, of course, is bad. When you see the writing on the wall and want to let the bearish fundamentals play out, you start letting out air from the kettle bit by bit. That means doing the Hawk announcements inside market hours so that the market starts to price hawkishness in. It also means doing the taco stuff outside of New York market hours to create counter-trend rallies into thin liquidity so that realized volatility rises and you can get the market acclimatized to a higher level of volatility instead of blind-siding it and causing a huge vol event. Basically the pattern signals they know it's over and they're actively trying to let air out of the pot rather than continuing to try to keep it closed forever. — https://nitter.net/BowTiedLobster/status/2038835801757520231#m
Huge rises with great speed is bear market price action in equities.
Q4 rGDP 0.7%? AI capex? 2001/2022 dispersion? 8-cluster Hindenburg? 6-month consolidation range break? Less fiscal? Dissaving consumer? Supply chain disruption already set in stone? No. There's a Iran war TACO card in Trump's right hand. Stare at it. You're not really looking. Video
We got to this conclusion from pretty different angles but if you’re looking for a comprehensive and detailed accounting of the history and the pieces on the game board Marvin is your analyst. I’m a youthful learner with hunches and skill at reading people. ThematicMarkets (@ThematicMarkets) I'm reading a lot of ex post recalibrations today of "experts" finally realizing that maybe, just maybe, the US doesn't care if the Strait is reopened. That was clear from the start if you had the right model of everyone's motives in the Iran war. It pays to subscribe... — https://nitter.net/ThematicMarkets/status/2038978324630749238#m
Big hat tip to @Wild_Randomness yesterday for reading lots of this site yesterday so I didn’t have to. Smelling out recession sentiment; now that’s a good nose. If you’re interested in actioning a Hawk Trump view, your chances just got way better. Lobster (@BowTiedLobster) I rarely talk my trading book but this feels like a good time to make sure you are conscious of the folly of shorting the hole and eating a short-term rise (which move the fastest). This is NOT encouragement to buy for the long-term, odds are not in your favor there either. — https://nitter.net/BowTiedLobster/status/2038714008958804358#m
Lobster (@BowTiedLobster) Hawk Trump. His goals are not the goals most think he has, but they are the same as the goals Lobster thinks he has. Liberation Day was the true face of this administration. — https://nitter.net/BowTiedLobster/status/2038795952899928077#m
The Master said, "A man of humanity, wishing to establish his own character, also establishes the character of others, and wishing to be prominent, helps others to be prominent." (An. 6.28).
h/t @colossus_cap on the Hawk Trump image
As someone who shorted equities and raised considerable cash in the last week, I do indeed agree with this. But isn’t there somebody you forgot to ask? Lobster (@BowTiedLobster) (Not for children) — https://nitter.net/BowTiedLobster/status/2034395891176771710#m
