lava_xbt
@lava_xbt — 97 tweets
$CRSP on the M 👁🗨
$BTC 📌 Waiting on either the swing short opportunities near the top of the bear flag if we create that third drive or the break down to $44k + macro 0.5 fib for a high probability bullish reversal
$SPX providing the warning sign I've been waiting on, we've lost the key swing low and now we're pulling back into the range 📌 Structurally this is flashing big warning signs for a drop into the liquidity below. Refined entry 5730 This could coincide with the eventual final leg down for crypto given we haven't seen the strength needed for the bullish thesis for 2026 Q1 to play out
Was correct here about the distributive PA but got taken out of the short on the stop run after we formed the bearish three drives. Just an example of how the PA's been trading during this range LavaXBT (@lava_xbt) Exited my long due to the clearly distributive nature of the price action here on $BTC rather than anything indicative of a trend reversal ✍️ Shorted the third drive and looking for a better long opportunity near range lows — https://nitter.net/lava_xbt/status/2039066423721431365#m
Current plan for crypto market is to allow this range of death to play out and wait for the more optimal opportunities lower. Targets and levels have been given multiple times, even when we were trading at $120k and I gave detailed analysis on why I was expecting $45k and $29k to hit eventually from there I'm not a scalp trader and it isn't my style, so after a few unsuccessful scalp attempts during this range, I'm going to be focusing on some opportunities in other markets and simply execute once the R/R makes more sense in crypto land at the levels and confluences I've outlined on Bitcoin long opportunities and DOGE spot in previous charts Appreciate you all and I'm going to continue to do my best to provide quality insides and opportunities here. I take it seriously that so many of you listen to me. Brighter days are coming for crypto once absolute and complete exhaustion and wreckage has fully taken place
Exited my long due to the clearly distributive nature of the price action here on $BTC rather than anything indicative of a trend reversal ✍️ Shorted the third drive and looking for a better long opportunity near range lows LavaXBT (@lava_xbt) Expected a breakout on the third hit of the 12h PBB and didn't get it NY open pump n dump playing out so I'm exiting near BE here — https://nitter.net/lava_xbt/status/2038994520537526718#m
Expected a breakout on the third hit of the 12h PBB and didn't get it NY open pump n dump playing out so I'm exiting near BE here LavaXBT (@lava_xbt) $BTC update 📌 — https://nitter.net/lava_xbt/status/2038624479585116227#m
A year ago I warned of how bearish Bitcoin was becoming on the macro level. I continually gave the warning signs and my thesis that we were going to move sideways for years, rather than continue to herd's expectation of large boom/bust cycles No one bought it back then, yet here we are. Now we're looking at much lower targets and a needed macro bottom process near the macro range low in order to create a new "easy money" season The very few who are legit were way ahead on this. Currently with the psyops and hints being deployed, I could see a strong bottoming/bullish period Q4/CNY coming. But lower levels are needed beforehand in the coming months LavaXBT (@lava_xbt) Updating my thoughts on this thread Since then we've done nothing but form weak new high and another bearish divergence, and we are now confirming a 2M cross down on the liquidity cycle which created an 80% correction the last two times this happened — https://nitter.net/lava_xbt/status/1996982181290197432#m
$BTC update 📌 LavaXBT (@lava_xbt) First levels for confluence didn't provide the reaction, now we have the more optimal setup. I'm long $BTC Manage risk and enjoy the weekend 🤝 — https://nitter.net/lava_xbt/status/2037522708574224599#m
Least understood concepts around these parts = probabilities and risk management
First levels for confluence didn't provide the reaction, now we have the more optimal setup. I'm long $BTC Manage risk and enjoy the weekend 🤝 LavaXBT (@lava_xbt) Confluence for longs now on primary majors 👁🗨 — https://nitter.net/lava_xbt/status/2037189252358775039#m
$MSTR + $COIN + $CRCL 📌 Potential pathway for additional fuel, confluences for crypto finding its footing, and corrective upside
Another 🔄🚢 playing out is going to depend entirely on what levels are being taken leading into it, and what psyops the whales are deploying. It's always charts first, then psychological factors, then execution.
Primary major weekly updates 📌 Harsh rejections again, no signs of strength on the weekly charts. Looking for shorts at the liquidity inside the wicks, levels were given
Q2 2025 thesis ✅ Q3 2025 thesis ✅ Q4 2025 thesis ✅ Q1 2026 thesis ❌